Analyser

Räntebladet – mars 2022

• Stor osäkerhet kring ränteutvecklingen framöver
• Vi reviderar upp prognoserna för bolåneräntor ytterligare
• Den ovissa utvecklingen av kriget i Ukraina gör ränteprognoserna betydligt mer osäkra än normalt. Kriget riskerar att bidra till såväl högre inflation som lägre tillväxt i Sverige och omvärlden. Effekterna på räntor på sikt är oklara men svenska statsräntor har fallit sedan Rysslands invasion påbörjades. Osäkerheten är även stor vad gäller centralbankernas agerande framöver.
• Ränteprognoserna baseras på vår makrovy i Swedbank Economic Outlook (januari). Vi bedömer att prognoserna för svensk ekonomi står sig väl trots utvecklingen i Ukraina, även om risken för högre inflation och lägre tillväxt har ökat.
• Vår prognos är att Riksbanken höjer räntan i november, vilket lyfter svenska korträntor senare i år. Kriget väntas inte ha någon avgörande betydelse för penningpolitiken, men det kan få Riksbanken att ligga kvar längre med stimulanserna. Vi räknar med att Riksbanken höjer reporäntan ytterligare två gånger under 2023, upp till 0,75 procent.
• De så kallade swapspreadarna, dvs. skillnaderna mellan swap- och statsräntorna, har stigit markant och ligger nu på de högsta nivåerna sedan 2012. Vi räknar med en viss normalisering och nedgång framöver. Sammantaget görs inga stora revideringar av prognosen för swapräntorna.
• De bundna bolåneräntorna steg i januari och flera institut har höjt räntorna även i februari. Ett högre globalt ränteläge, tillsammans med att Riksbanken väntas trappa ned obligationsköpen under året, bidrar till att lyfta de bundna boräntorna. Den rörliga bolåneräntan stiger i takt med att Riksbanken höjer räntan. Sammantaget revideras bolåneräntorna upp ytterligare något sedan i februari.

7 mars 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Pandemin – ett bokslut av BNP

Snabb återhämtning i svensk ekonomi

• BNP avslutade 2021 på en högre nivå jämfört med prognoser som gjordes före pandemin
• Hög tillväxt i världshandeln har lett till att svensk export har överträffat förväntningarna
• Snabb återhämtning i näringslivets investeringar kan ge en tillväxtskjuts framöver …
• … men osäkerheten är hög i närtid till följd av Ukrainakonflikten

28 februari 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Ukraine – global economic effects

• Higher energy & commodity prices, and falling equity prices, will weigh on global growth.
• Neighbouring countries will also suffer from reduced trade and sentiment effects.
• Fed will stay on its course and lift rates. The situation for the ECB is trickier.

25 Februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Macro Focus - The Baltics and Russia – how strong are economic ties?

• Although economic ties have weakened over time, Russia is an important source of imports for the Baltics
• Exports of goods of national origin to Russia are small
• Transit trade with Russia is of high importance for Lithuania
• Lithuanian dependency on Russian gas supply is low

Due to historical links between the Baltics and Russia, economic ties have been strong, although decreasing over time.

14 Februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Räntebladet – februari 2022

Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

• Kraftigt stigande räntor i Europa efter ECB:s februarimöte
• Vi reviderar upp prognoserna för bolåneräntor ytterligare.
• Räntor fortsätter att stiga både i Sverige och omvärlden. Uppgången beror på kvardröjande hög inflation och på stigande förväntningar om att centralbanker kommer att minska stimulanserna. ECB lämnade penningpolitiken oförändrad vid februarimötet men signalerade vid presskonferensen en stramare hållning än tidigare, vilket ledde till kraftigt stigande räntor i Europa.
• Räntorna förväntas stiga ytterligare i år och nästa år i takt med att konjunkturen stärks och då centralbankerna de facto börjar dra tillbaka stimulanserna. Inflationen väntas i flera länder dämpas under året men likväl ligga kvar på en högre nivå än normalt relativt länge. I Sverige räknar vi med att inflationen ligger kvar kring 4 procent fram till sommaren och först därefter sjunker.
• Vår prognos är att Riksbanken avvaktar med att höja räntan till 2023, vilket håller tillbaka svenska korträntor i år. Marknaden diskonterar nu två höjning redan under 2022.
• De bundna bolåneräntorna steg mot slutet av förra året och har fortsatt uppåt i januari. Ett högre globalt ränteläge, tillsammans med att Riksbanken väntas trappa ned köpen av säkerställda obligationer under året, bidrar till att lyfta de bundna boräntorna. Den rörliga bolåneräntan väntas börja stiga mer tydligt först under 2023 då Riksbanken höjer räntan.
• Vi bedömer att ränteprognoserna är behäftade med större osäkerhet än normalt. Det handlar i sin tur om att det råder en stor osäkerhet kring flera faktorer som bestämmer ränteutvecklingen, inte minst inflationsutvecklingen och centralbankernas agerande framöver.
• Ränteprognoserna baseras på våra makroprognoser i Swedbank Economic Outlook (januari).

Räntebladet – januari 2022

• Stigande obligationsräntor i Sverige och omvärlden under de senaste veckorna
• Vi reviderar upp prognoserna för bundna boräntor för 2022 och 2023
• Sedan mitten av december har obligationsräntor både i Sverige och omvärlden stigit. Fortsatt hög inflation och förväntningar på att centralbanker kommer att minska stimulanserna under året har trumfat eventuell omikron-oro.
• Vi räknar med att räntorna stiger ytterligare under prognosperioden då konjunkturen stärks, inflationen ligger kvar högt och centralbankerna drar ned på stimulanserna. Räntorna har hittills stigit en aning mer än väntat, vilket innebär att prognoserna på statsobligations- och swapräntor har reviderats upp något jämfört med december.
• Riksbanken indikerar att reporäntan kommer att höjas till 0,25 procent i slutet av 2024, vilket är senare än vår prognos (andra halvåret 2023). Marknaden diskonterar fortfarande 1 höjning redan under 2022, vilket vi alltså inte tror realiseras. Detta håller tillbaka svenska korträntor i år.
• De bundna bolåneräntorna steg mot slutet av förra året och vi räknar med en gradvis uppgång även framöver. Ett högre globalt ränteläge, tillsammans med att Riksbanken väntas trappa ned köpen av säkerställda obligationer under året, bidrar till att lyfta de bundna boräntorna. Den rörliga bolåneräntan väntas börja stiga först under 2023 då Riksbanken höjer räntan.
• Ränteprognoserna baseras på våra makroprognoser och pandemiantaganden i Swedbank Economic Outlook (november). Nya makroprognoser publiceras i Swedbank Economic Outlook 19/1.

10 januari 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

The economics of extreme weather events

Nordic and Baltic economies relatively spared so far

• The impacts of extreme weather vary across geographies, across sectors, and, thereby, across countries. Water and waste, agriculture, transportation, and tourism are among the sectors affected the most.
• Globally, the direct costs of extreme weather events are on the rise and have amounted to around EUR 100 billion every year since 2010.
• Moreover, although indirect costs from extreme weather events, such as reduced economic activity, supply-chain disruptions, and health effects are harder to quantify, studies suggest that they could be an additional multiple of direct costs ranging from 1.5X to over 10X.
• Nevertheless, the Nordic and Baltic economies have been relatively spared so far, incurring quite small losses due to extreme weather events. However, the costs are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, affecting more parts of the globe.
• Large-scale investments will be necessary to enable the global economy and societies to mitigate the risks from extreme weather events. Upward price pressure and capital losses are also likely. 

17 december 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Räntebladet – december 2021

• Svängiga räntemarknader i november med sjunkande långräntor i spåren av omikron
• Vi räknar med högre räntor, men reviderar ned ränteprognoserna för 2022 något

6 december 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Räntebladet – november 2021

Fortsatt stigande räntor i Sverige i oktober men stabila bolåneräntor.

Vi reviderar upp prognoserna på stats- och swapräntor.

• I oktober fortsatte räntor på statsobligationer både i Sverige och omvärlden uppåt. En förklaring är att investerare i allt större utsträckning tar höjd för att vissa centralbanker är på väg att dra ned stimulanserna, inte minst Fed. I både Sverige och USA har också ränteuppgången varit tydligast för obligationsräntor med kortare löptider.
• Mot denna bakgrund revideras räntenivåerna upp för hela prognosperioden. Den tydligast upprevidering sker för räntor på 2- och 5-års löptider, men även tioårsräntan revideras upp något. Vi räknar alltså fortsatt med att räntor stiger i takt med att den ekonomiska återhämtningen fortskrider enligt bedömningen i Swedbank Economic Outlook från augusti.
• Riksbanken indikerar att reporäntan kommer ligga kvar på 0 procent fram till det tredje kvartalet 2024, vilket också är i linje med vår prognos om oförändrad reporänta till åtminstone slutet av 2023. Marknaden diskonterar 1 till 2 höjningar redan under 2023, vilket vi alltså inte tror realiseras. Detta håller tillbaka svenska korträntor även kommande år.
• Swapräntorna revideras också upp. De så kallade swapspreadarna, dvs. ränteskillnaderna mellan swap- och statsobligationsräntorna, har stigit markant de senaste månaderna efter att ha varit mycket låga under krisen. Vi räknar med oförändrade swapspreadar under prognosperioden.
• Bolåneräntorna visar dock än så länge inga tecken på att stiga och har till och med sjunkit marginellt i oktober. Vi reviderar ned prognosen i närtid marginellt medan prognosen för bolåneräntor på längre löptider behålls oförändrad.

1 november 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

What happens in Glasgow?

• The projected path for global warming leads to 2.7°C by the end of the century, and not 1.5°C as is the goal.
• This year’s UN conference on climate change is important since the countries will present how they plan to limit their carbon footprint, as promised at the Paris agreement.  
• Four goals will be the main focus: mitigation, adaptation, finance and collaboration. The goals seem far from reachable given the current situation.
• Dual investments are needed to curb further emissions and to adapt to climate change that is already occurring.
• The current global energy crisis has accentuated the need of clean and stable energy production and could increase incentives for investing in green energy sources.

Oct 28 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Energy prices – a manageable challenge for the region’s economies

• Energy prices have surged lately and are expected to remain elevated throughout winter, fuelling higher inflation, which in most of the region is expected to peak early next year.
• Businesses shift the costs to clients, but most consumers’ purchasing power will remain strong. Vulnerable households should see government support, especially in the Baltics.
• The green transition implies higher and more volatile energy prices in the medium term, while in the long-term renewables should provide a cheaper source of energy for the world.

Oct 8 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Kommersiella Fastigheters Utsikter

Återhämtning, men strukturella förändringar påverkar fastighetsmarknaden

Den positiva makrobilden med en kraftfull återhämtning i ekonomin kommer att understödja sektorn som helhet. Men pandemin har påskyndat en rad strukturella förändringar som påverkar olika fastighetssegment på olika sätt. För kontors- och handelsfastigheter räknar vi med ökade vakanser, medan efterfrågan på logistik- och samhällsfastigheter samt bostäder är mycket hög. 

Företag och emittenter möter gynnsamma finansiella förhållanden där centralbankernas expansiva penningpolitik bidrar. I takt med att ekonomierna återhämtar sig kommer ränteläget att normaliseras och kreditspreadar kommer att stiga. Inom ett par år kan det handla om betydligt högre finansieringskostnader för vissa bolag.

23 september 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Handelns Utsikter

Konsumenterna återvänder till butikerna

Förutsättningarna för hushållen förblir goda under kommande två år. Lättade restriktioner och minskad smittspridning har bidragit till att konsumtionen återhämtat sig. I höst räknar vi med en fortsatt gradvis normalisering där tjänstekonsumtionen ökar. Trender som kommer att prägla närtiden är ett ökat hållbarhetsfokus, en fortsatt digitalisering och en hög andel distansarbete. För företagen – oavsett sektor inom handeln - gäller det att integrera hållbarhetsarbetet i flera delar av verksamheten (förpackning, transporter, avfallshantering osv). Samtidigt väntas en flexiblare policy kring distansarbete öka vikten av att handelsföretag har en väl fungerande omnikanal.

Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Räntebladet – september 2021

• Stabilisering på räntemarknaderna under de senaste veckorna
• Bolåneräntor på längre löptider stiger gradvis under prognosperioden

6 september 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Swedbank ESG monitor: Carbon pricing speeds up structural change

Sustainable development indicators show that all the Nordic and Baltic countries have a long way to go to reach the 2030 Sustainable development goals. At the sectoral level, especially utilities and transport, agriculture and forestry have high emission intensities in many Nordic and Baltic countries.

For the world to reach net-zero emissions, a higher price of carbon is needed. This would have the largest impacts in carbon-intensive and export-reliant sectors in mining and manufacturing, utilities and transport. Transition risks are considerable in the Nordics and Baltics, although most of them have an emission intensity below the global average.

23 juni 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf) 

Räntebladet – maj 2021

• Stiltje på räntemarknaderna under våren men vi räknar alltjämt med viss uppgång
• Räntor med kortare löptider parkerade på dagens låga nivåer.

24 maj 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Räntebladet – april 2021

• Tillfällig paus i uppgången av långräntor.
• Bundna bolåneräntor stiger gradvis medan den rörliga räntan parkerar på dagens nivåer.

29 april 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Räntebladet – mars 2021

• Långräntor har stigit relativt mycket hittills i år. Det har främst drivits av utvecklingen i USA vilket även har spillt över på svenska räntor.
• Vi reviderar upp våra prognoser för svenska räntor med längre löptider.

8 mars 2021:Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf) 

Nordic Macro Monthly - The turnaround is close, but downside risks dominate

• The Nordic economies stand strong and pre-crisis GDP levels are within reach
• The pandemic still threatens the recovery as mutation variants spread and vaccination lags
• Special theme: Targeted and timely support to businesses remains crucial 

23 February 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Elnätet: En nyckelfråga för tillväxt och grön omställning

Den gröna omställningen ställer höga krav på Sveriges redan ansträngda elnät. Kraftigt ökade investeringar behövs och är planerade, men risken är stor att de dröjer. Det finns lösningar för kapacitetsbristen men många pusselbitar behöver komma på plats.

11 februari 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här

Nordic Macro Monthly - Pent-up demand will boost Nordics towards summer

• Growth will pick up in the second half of 2021, once the coronavirus vaccine is rolled out
• Policy will remain accommodative, Norges Bank will be an early mover and hike in 2021
• Special theme: Uneven retail trade partly explained by less cross-border trading

3 december 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Brexit briefing: A guide to the UK’s exit from the EU

18 nov: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

US Election 2020: Initial result shows that it's too close to call

4 november 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

US Election 2020: The election night 

2 nov 2020: The short guide to the US election (pdf)

US Election 2020: Bidenomics gives short-run growth boost

Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Restaurangbranschen: Återhämtningen som kom av sig

Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

US Election 2020: Prepare for a change in the White House

Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Frågor och svar inför amerikanska presidentvalet 2020

8 oktober 2020: Läs frågor och svar här (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly - Booming house prices 

• The Nordic economies are recovering but the spread of the virus remains a big unknown
• Special theme: the Nordic housing market – Prices at new record highs
• We foresee continued house price increases but at a slower pace

1 oktober 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
 

Rapport- Handels utsikter

29 september 2020: Sammanfattning: Bättre- men inte bra (pdf)

Trump, Biden and climate policy

24 september 2020: A key election for the planet (pdf)
 

Ännu ingen grön återhämtning

Gröna investeringar utgör hittills en marginell del av de globala stimulanserna. Sverige har annonserat minst gröna stimulanser i Norden men mer förväntas komma.

26 augusti 2020: Ännu ingen grön återhämtning
 

Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance

The Swedish government’s first green bond is an important political signal and will support spending towards Sweden’s environmental targets. Given the state’s increased borrowing needs, the timing of the green bond issuance is good.

24 augusti 2020: Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance
 

Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed

Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?

25 juni 2020: Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed (pdf)

Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data

Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.

24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)

A greenish recovery

Political momentum and cheaper renewables support a greener crisis recovery in Europe. The Nordics are on the right track, but more is needed. 

22 juni 2020: A greenish recovery

Nordic-Baltic Business Report: Well prepared to take on the challenge

The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.

26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller.

Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures

29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)

Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig

7 april 2020: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.

5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Nordic Macro Monthly: Strong domestic demand keeps Nordics afloat amid virus fears

Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2% in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.

26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly

Fed update: No big surprises

The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises

China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

27 januari 2019: China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

Fed preview: Continued on hold

Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold

ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

No changes in monetary policy. Strategic review launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

Grön protektionism - hot eller möjlighet

Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.

21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet

ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long-term slowdown drivers remain

17 januari 2019: China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long-term slowdown drivers remain

 

 

Consumer Spending Observer

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden

Omicron gloom despite payday relief

• Total spending was 4% higher compared with both 2021 and 2019 in the past week as payday effects kicked in
• The Omicron impact on services spending remains significant, while the goods spending momentum might begin to wear off

2 februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden

Consumption ends 2021 on a weak note

• Closing the spending year of 2021, our transaction data shows a jump compared to 2020, while remaining below the levels in 2019
  
• During the last week (25/12-1/1), spending of services was 23% lower than in the corresponding week in 2019.

5 januari: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden

An initial omicron effect?

• Total spending was up 6% compared to 2019 in the past week while services spending decreased to 16% below 2019 (data until 4 December)
• Spending on travel agencies as well as hotel & restaurants decreased compared to 2019, possibly a consequence of the omicron mutation scare

8 december: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: Bleaker Black week despite consumption boost

• Spending on goods increased by 17% during Black week compared to previous week, a tad less than in 2020 and 2019
• Black week boosted spending particularly in the home electronics sector, although not as much as in previous years

30 november: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden

Autumn’s half-term break boosted services spending

• In the past week, growth in services consumption was the highest since the start of the pandemic
• Staycation boosted spending on restaurant & hotels as well as on recreation & culture

10 november: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden

Recovery underway in the travel sector?

• Total spending was 2% above 2019 in recent week (data until 18 September), a tad lower than the week before
• Spending on airlines & travel agencies reached its highest level since the start of the pandemic, albeit at about 60% below 2019

22 september: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: August consumption lull

• Following the fast upswing in June and July, spending on services slowed down in August
• Consumption recovered, however, at the turn of the month as spending on both goods and services improved

8 september: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: Payday lifted spending above 2019 level

• Total spending was 3% above 2019 in recent week (data until 28 August) as spending on both goods and services increased
• Spending on clothing & footwear was in recent week about 9% above the corresponding week in 2019, the highest since the start of the pandemic

1 september: CSO (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: The summer effect is fading

• Total spending was 4% below 2019 in recent week (data until 21 August) as spending on both goods and services declined
• Spending on restaurants & hotels weakened as vacation ended and was in recent week about 1.5% above the same week in 2019

25 augusti: CSO (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Increased appetite for restaurant spending

The effect of eased restrictions on June 1st is visible in the transaction data, and services spending improved in recent week. Spending on restaurant and hotel services increased by almost 20% compared to the week before.

9 juni: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Hovering around four-week trend

Total spending 4% above last year’s level in recent week, and about 1% below the pre-pandemic level (data until 29 May). Total consumption follows pre-pandemic spending pattern since February, suggesting a sharp increase during the summer.

2 juni: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spring has sprung in the travel sector

Spending on travel services has started to increase after more than a year at bottom levels. The trend is positive in the hotel & restaurant sector, which is hopefully facing an equally large upswing as last summer.

26 maj: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: The four-week trend is approaching pre-corona levels

Uptick in total spending in recent week due to higher grocery spending during the Ascension holiday (data until 15 May). The four-week trend for total spending increased further, and the level was 1.6% below the corresponding weeks in 2019.

19 maj: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: COVID-19 durables appear less durable

Home electronics spending remains elevated and even exceeds last year’s home office supply hoarding phase. A new report shows that transaction data is a good indicator of household consumption, also in times of increased e-commerce.

12 maj: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Pandemic spending pattern continues

Uptick in total spending in recent week due to payday effect, but overall, the pandemic spending pattern continues. The four-week trend for services spending remains at about 35% below normal levels (data until May 1st).

5 maj: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: The spending trend remains decent, despite a lower annual rate

Overall spending 3.5% higher than during the corresponding week in 2020. The trend in the service sector stays positive, mainly driven by increased spending in restaurants & hotels.

28 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: A broken trend or a temporary setback?

Spending improved in recent week as compared with the worst week of the pandemic in 2020, but declined compared to 2019. The four-week trend has declined somewhat for goods while it has flattened for services spending (data until 17 April).

21 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Easter spending resurrection proved short-lived

Annual growth rate weakened in recent week, and spending compared to 2019 was back in negative territory. The trend in the service sector remains positive, while spending on goods dropped.

14 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Sharp increase in spending during Easter week

Total spending increased 1.3% compared to 2019 and was even higher compared to 2020: 17.6% (data until 3 April). Spending on groceries contributed the most and was elevated compared to Easter both in 2020 and 2019.

7 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Payday and base effects lift the annual rate

Total spending is almost 13% higher than last year’s level, but remains below normal levels. The trend is still encouraging, and spending on both goods and services has increased in recent months.

31 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Sharp increase in the annual rate due to base effects, nevertheless the trend in spending is improving

Total spending increases to 1.6% above last year’s level (data until 20 March), but remains 4.6% below normal levels. Annual growth rate of services spending goes positive, although the turnover remains nearly 40% below normal levels. 

24 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slightly higher spending last week when services improved due to base effects 

Total spending was -3% last week, while the four-week average was -5.5% (y/y, data up to 6 March). Spending on goods was 2% higher and spending on services was 28% lower than last year’s level.

10 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: February started strong but ended a bit weaker

Spending on goods declined at the end of the month. Higher spending on services, but favourable base effects are starting to kick in.

3 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slightly lower spending last week 

Total spending was -6% last week, while the four-week average was -5% (y/y, data up to 20 February). Spending on goods was 3% higher than last year’s level, while spending on services was 39% lower.

24 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending stabilises at 5% below last year’s level

Spending on restaurants & hotels has not kept up the pace with improving hospitalisations. Goods spending has been elevated in recent weeks.

17 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending kicked off on a stronger footing in February

Spending on recreation and culture above pre-crisis levels. Services spending still muted albeit a bit higher.

10 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending bounces on payday effect

Spending in recent week rose and stood only 5% below last year’s level, but January was still the second-worst month since the pandemic outbreak. 

3 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending drops 15% during the poorest week of the year

Spending on services remain muted but no obvious effects from alcohol-ban at restaurants. Regional data suggests not a lot of travelling during the holidays.

27 jan: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: Continued weakness in spending

Total transaction turnover stabilised at 8% below last year’s level. After a volatile December, spending patterns have returned to a “pandemic normal”.

21 jan: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Christmas shopping is lagging behind

Turnover drops in all sectors compared to 2019 Christmas shopping. Two shopping days short of last year and more online shopping warrant a cautious interpretation of the magnitude. 

13 januari: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending ends 2020 at 17% below 2019 level

Christmas shopping and holiday sales underperformed as spending in shops decreased markedly. For the full-year 2020, spending was 5% lower than 2019, while spending on services declined by 28%. 

23 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slight rebound in services spending

Restaurants and hotels spending improved and seems to have left the bottom behind. Home electronics, clothes and shoes spending suggest an early start to Christmas shopping.

16 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Restaurant and hotel spending at a 2020 low

Spending on social activities continues to drop. Yet no signs of early Christmas shopping.

9 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Black week home electronics mania

Spending on home electronics increased by 22% compared to Black week in 2019. The drop in the service sector seems to have stabilised, but at very low levels.

2 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Restaurant and hotel spending back to worst crisis levels

Overall spending drops to 10% below last year's level as service sectors struggle. Spending patterns similar to the first wave, but without hoarding of food.

25 November: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

 

Consumer Spending Observer: Restriction-sensitive sectors fall, but goods counteract

Spending is trending downwards, although it remained at 8% below last year’s level in past week. Restaurants and clothing drop, while spending on home electronics and durables increase.

18 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: The expected decline has begun

Spending dropped markedly in early November. Restaurant turnover was down 40%. Tighter restrictions directly affected spending in restaurants as is clear from Uppsala and other places.

11 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: New restrictions are not visible in the spending data- yet

Spending has increased markedly in recent days; probably due to payday, staycations and Halloween. Spending trend remains stable, but expected to decline due to new restrictions.

4 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Holding on to the trend. Just

Consumer spending still fairly stable, just below last year’s level. Significant regional differences in restaurant spending.

21 October: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish consumption remains stable

Consumer spending steady, just below last year’s level. The near-term development remains fragile and depends on the corona evolution.

7 October 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Nothing new to report

Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishings.

23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: A new normal?

Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.

16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is almost back in town

After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.

9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Growth is picking up

Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Temporary decline, stable trend

Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending slowly climbs up

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.

19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is improving in the first week of August, while the trend remains stable

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.

12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending during the last week, July, and the summer: all stable at about 5% below last year’s level

Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel-related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels

5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is somewhat below last year’s level, but the differences across sectors decrease

Swedish card transaction data up until 25 July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.

29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is back to last year’s level

Swedish card transaction data up until 20 June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.

24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction spending below normal levels, but improvement underway

Swedish card transaction data up until 13 June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.

17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)